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■交通銀行金融研究中心2013年下半年中國宏觀經濟金融指標預測 經濟指標 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F GDP（%）：實際 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.2 7.8 7.5 CPI（%） 5.9 -0.7 3.3 5.4 2.6 2.6 PPI(%) 6.9 -5.4 5.5 6 -1.7 -2 城鎮固定資產投資（%） 26.1 30.5 24.5 23.8 20.6 20.4 社會消費品零售總額（%） 21.6 15.5 18.4 17.1 14.3 14.1 工業增加值（%） 12.9 11 15.7 13.9 10 9.4 出口額（%） 17.2 -16.0 31.3 20.3 7.9 8 進口額（%） 18.5 -11.2 38.7 24.9 4.3 7 貿易順差（億美元） 2955 1961 1831 1551 2311 2400 M1（%） 9.1 32.4 21.2 7.9 6.5 9 M2（%） 17.8 27.7 19.7 13.6 13.8 13-14 新增貸款（萬億元人民幣） 4.91 9.59 7.95 7.47 8.2 8.5-9 人民幣貸款餘額（%） 18.8 30 19.9 15.8 15 13.5 利率（一年期存款利率） 2.25 2.25 2.75 3.5 3 3 人民幣/美元 6.83 6.82 6.62 6.30 6.29 6.20 第一看點：內生動力不足 經濟下行承壓一、內外需求疲弱與結構性原因致經濟增速放緩今年二季度經濟增速相比一季度繼續放緩，迷你倉出租主要是由於短期內外需求疲弱、經濟結構性問題阻礙及中長期潛在經濟增長率放緩等三方面原因所致。1、內外需求疲弱是二季度經濟增速放緩的主要原因一是出口在政策“擠水分”的作用下，二季度同比增速出現了明顯的回調。二是製造業不景氣，固定資產投資增速持續放緩。三是工業生產和需求不旺，工業領域有通縮風險。四是用電量及鐵路貨運等反映實體經濟活力的數據表現疲弱。2、經濟的結構性失衡成為當前經濟增速回升的障礙首先，在獲得金融支持方面，房地產與融資平台對實體經濟產生“擠出效應”，今年一季度多增的社會融資主要流向房地產和地方融資平台。通過計算發現，一季度房地產和地方融資平台共獲得的融資同比多增達1.3萬億左右。在一季度比較實的社會融資同比多增部分中，有七成多流向了房地產和地方融資平台（二季度這一格局並未發生根本性改變）。這種金融資源配置的不平衡又帶來另一種結果，那就是雖然貨幣條件較為寬鬆，但全社會的實際融資成本卻很高。其次，房地產與融資平台的問題也制約了宏觀調控政策的空間，使逆周期調控政策出台面臨兩難。雖然目前經濟增長乏力，但由於房地產和融資平台的問題，逆周期的調控政策很難出台，特別是貨幣政策難以放鬆。因為目前全社會的實際融資成本偏高，即使小幅降息也並不能真正降低實際融資成本，反而會刺激房地產的投資性需求。而且在目前中國M2總量已經超過百萬億，地方融資平台信貸超過10萬億的背景下，貨幣政策再進一步放鬆的話，可能放大過去累積的信用擴張的問題，加劇出現財政金融風險的可能。3、經濟潛在增長率已經處於下行階段，這是當前增速持續回落的深層次原因據測算，在“十一五”時期，經濟潛在增長率大概是10.5%，實際增長率也是兩位數。而“十二五”時期潛在增長率將降到7.5%左右。目前經濟增速持續放緩而就業並沒有顯著惡化也從一個側面證明：當前的經濟增長率可能就是接近潛在增長率水平的增長。經濟潛在增長率下降是一個自然的過程，我們應當正視這一轉折的到來，不能沿用原來經濟高速增長時期的思路來調控經濟。二、總需求難以有效恢複，經濟增速仍有下行壓力依靠經濟內生增長動力難以有效扭轉當前經濟總需求不足的趨勢，預計下半年經濟增長仍有下行壓力。一是出口需求在外部弱複蘇內部擠水分的環境下，難以保持兩位數以上增長。首先，近年來，在美國經濟增速整體回暖背景下，美國進口增速卻是持續下行的。受此影響，我們看到近年來美國GDP同比增速與中國對美出口增速的走勢也出現背離，美國GDP增速與中國向美出口的增速之間的相關性正在減弱。其次，就中國最重要的貿易伙伴之一——歐盟而言，受困于“缺乏統一財權安排”的財稅制度以及“統一匯率”制約歐元貶值空間的現實政策掣肘下，為推動整體經濟的複蘇進程，歐央行繼續實施“零利率”貨幣寬鬆刺激政策的難度正日漸加大。在未來歐元區很可能採取緊縮進口的結構性再平衡調整計劃的政策取向下，中歐雙邊貿易大幅反彈的概率也不大。最後，從中國外貿的環境來看，外部貿易保護主義壓力、國內勞動力及環境成本上升、人民幣匯率的持續升值以及政策加大對虛假貿易的查處力度等因素，使出口持續高增長可能性並不大。預計2013年我國出口增速可能維持在8％左右。二是固定資產投資雖能在房地產和基建投資支撐下維持較快增長，但製造業投資增速持續下滑將制約其向上的空間。雖然擔心房地產泡沫及地方債務風險問題，但考慮到經濟下行的壓力較大，再進一步收緊房地產與融資平台政策並不合理，加上前期大量資金流入，預計年內房地產及基礎設施投資方面仍可能保持較高增速。但製造業投資受企業盈利持續放緩的影響可能仍將低位運行。特別是PPI持續負增長，工業品價格低迷及產能過剩等因素將繼續抑制企業再庫存的意願，使得企業補庫存的周期一再推遲，存貨投資放緩也將影響投資整體增速。當然，為保證完成全年經濟增速目標，下半年政府在穩定投資方面仍有可能有所動作，上半年由於政府換屆，發改委審批項目較少，下半年項目審批可能會加快，而未來鐵路投資、棚戶區改造、城市基礎設施建設、節能環保、能源、內河航運等領域將成為投資的重點。綜合以上因素，預計2013年固定資產投資增速約為20.4%左右，略低於去年。三是居民收入增速放緩將拉低全年消費增速。2013年上半年消費表現總體穩定，下半年消費增長面臨的有利因素有：第一，上半年我國社會消費品零售總額同比名義增長12.7%，增速比一季度加快0.3個百分點，扣除價格因素實際增長11.4%，增速比一季度回升0.6個百分點，顯示中國消費具有明顯的剛性。第二，今年以來我國房地產市場交易比較活躍，將帶動下半年住房相關的家電、家具與建築裝潢材料等的消費增長。第三，下半年政府可能出台一些促進消費的政策，包括促進信息消費、光伏消費等。另外國家發改委近期發起的對進口奶粉、醫藥等行業的反壟斷調查等也可能會帶來相關產品價格的下調，從而刺激相關產品的消費需求。與此同時，下半年我國消費增長仍面臨一些不確定因素：第一，上半年我國城市居民收入的實際增速開始回落，上半年其實際增速只有6.5%，又開始低於GDP增速，可能會對下半年消費產生抑制作用。第二，今年上半年以來國內資本市場持續低迷，負的財富效應也對消費產生不利影響。第三，近期國內有較多城市為治理交通擁堵及城市環境汙染，開始對汽車採取限購和限行等措施，可能對下半年汽車銷量有負面作用。綜合預計，2013年社會消費品零售總額名義增速約為14.1%，實際增速約為11.9%左右，均略低於去年。由於下半年三大需求都有繼續放緩的可能，經濟增速仍有下行的壓力。但短期看，一系列因素可能使經濟增長不會出現“斷崖式”下降。首先，經濟運行很可能已經接近其潛在增長水平，未來現實增長不大可能持續大幅下挫。與2009年初2000萬農民返鄉相比，目前就業狀況較為平穩，這也是實體經濟運行相對平穩的一方面寫照。其次，三駕馬車中消費增速總體穩定，二季度實際增速相比一季度明顯回升，顯示國內消費需求增長仍有較大潛力。最後，近期政府提出要保證全年經濟增長率、就業水平等不滑出“下限”。綜上，預計2013年三、四季度經濟增速分別為7.4%、7.2%，全年經濟增速仍有可能維持在7.5%左右，出現“硬著陸”的可能性很小。第二看點：物價漲幅受限 同比小幅上升一、下半年物價大幅上漲概率較低1、總需求弱勢下物價難以大幅上漲根據我們對三、四季度GDP增速的估計結果，採用HP濾波法估算我國產出缺口：2012年至今年上半年季度缺口均為負值，盡管下半年將轉正，但仍接近零值，總需求持續弱勢，預計物價水平難以大幅上漲。2、物價不具備大幅上漲的貨幣環境2013上半年經濟增長持續下行，但貨幣政策並未因此而轉向寬鬆；新增外匯占款在經歷一季度大幅增長之後，二季度規模開始明顯回落；前四個月市場流動性略松、但年中呈現較緊的局面。近期政府重申維持穩健的貨幣政策基調，未來市場流動性大幅寬鬆的可能性不大，因此，短期未來物價水平不具有大幅上漲的貨幣條件。3、國際大宗商品價格震蕩下行，輸入通脹可能性較低歷史數據顯示，布倫特原油期貨價格與國內燃料動力類工業生產購進價格指數、石油和天然氣開采業PPI以及車用燃料CPI的相關性較高，國際油價變動對國內以上相關價格的影響滯後約1-3個月。上半年國際油價同比漲幅為負，預計下半年還將持續，因而短期內PPI同比迅速回升的可能性不大。二、全年CPI和PPI同比繼續分化1、下半年CPI翹尾因素可能被新漲價因素抵補下半年CPI翹尾因素約為0.89%，較上半年略低0.3個百分點左右；從趨勢來看，2013年CPI翹尾因素呈現中間高兩頭低的形態，最高點為6月份的1.8%。考慮到歷史CPI新漲價因素基本在下半年呈上升趨勢、較上半年高1個百分點左右，並且根據以上對四種主要價格因素溫和上升的分析，初步判斷，2013年下半年物價漲幅壓力相對年初而言略大。2、下半年CPI和PPI同比或分別小幅上升至2.8%和-1.7%左右根據以上定性分析調試物價漲幅的模擬和預測模型，結果顯示，2013年下半年CPI同比漲幅在2.8%左右，並呈緩慢上行態勢，全年約2.6%。採用類似方法對PPI同比進行數值模擬和預測，結果顯示2013年下半年PPI同比同樣將略有上行，但由負轉正的可能性較小，約為-1.7%，預計全年在-2%左右。CPI和PPI同比繼續分化。第三看點：房價漲幅趨緩 政策長短結合一、政策注重長短結合，長效機制提上日程1、下半年房價調控加碼可能性較小中長期來看，決定房價上升動力的關鍵取決于市場供需結構，在供求失衡狀況得到實質扭轉以前，房價上漲壓力猶存。下半年，決策層將更注重長短期政策結合，�動房產稅擴容等長效政策的制定和落實。而由於長效機制的建立和發揮效能還需要一段相對較長的時期，在此之前行政手段仍將占主導地位，暫無放鬆可能，調控方式將以部分房價上漲較快的城市落實現有政策為主。2、房產稅漸行漸近，擴圍在即房產稅作為一項調節樓市要素配置的長效機制，其作用性質決定了擴圍並不會使房價應聲而落。從目前情況看，下半年擴圍對象將集中在少數前期房價儲存倉漲過快的城市，試點徵收方法仍將以增量征稅為主，或涉及少量存量。3、探索土地改革，增加供給在新型城鎮化的大框架下，土地改革作為配套政策將被越來越多地考慮和提及。若農村土地流轉通暢，將提高農村土地利用效率，有助于緩解城市用地緊張問題，抑制新城區房價，同時也將有力地推進城鎮化進程，擴大城市外延。近年來，重慶、天津、廣東等地都在積極探索改革農村集體土地流轉方式，若此過程推進較快，會在下半年一定程度上影響地價。二、供求失衡矛盾仍存，房價向上趨勢未改1、投資將保持增長，開發企業資金面向好房地產投資的強勁增長與開發商資金面的全面好轉有關。1-6月，房地產開發企業到位資金57225億元，同比增長32.1%，明顯高于2011年以來的增速，這得益于量價齊升的良好銷售局面及融資成本下降。投資增速通常落後成交指標變化一個季度至半年，今年以來銷售面積和銷售額同比增速較去年大幅提升，預計將在下半年投資增速上有所反映。同時，隨著信托融資成本下降，開發企業資金面轉好的趨勢將延續，大型房企仍具備繼續在一二線城市布局的實力。這將使得下半年土地市場持續火熱，特別是重點城市優質地塊仍將是開發企業追逐的熱點。2、成交將在高位平穩增長下半年，成交量將在高位平穩增長。在供給端，開發商推盤力度下半年通常大於上半年，房地產投資和開工等供給先行指標也顯示未來供給增速處於穩定回升通道中，下降的行業庫存將相應有所升高。在需求端，首次置業及改善性需求依然旺盛，調控下房價依然堅挺的局面更增強了市場對房價上漲的一致預期，置業者追漲和恐慌心理加劇。隨著調控政策效力減弱，被壓制觀望的需求將擇機入市。總體來看，下半年成交仍將處於高位，銷售指標增速將較上半年平穩。3、房價向上依舊，但漲幅將小于上半年下半年房價總體依舊向上，但漲幅較上半年平穩。首先，集聚能力較強的一線和重點二線城市，其房價上行壓力處於全國前列。第二，開發企業資金較為充裕，進行降價促銷的動力不足，部分開發商利用預售監管推遲開盤以觀望或待漲。第三，土地市場的持續火熱終將傳導至商品房市場，未來房價將面臨更大的上漲壓力。但未來市場中也存在著一定的影響房價下行的因素，如國際資本回流美國的動力增強，我國面臨資本外流壓力；中央要求金融業加大對實體經濟服務力度；銀行在存貸比約束下存在貸款收緊壓力等。第四看點：信貸增速放緩 貨幣投放略降一、經濟增長疲弱政策維持穩健，信貸增速進一步放緩1、固定資產投資將基本平穩，對信貸增長構成支撐據測算，新開工項目計劃投資增速變化領先信貸增速變化大約1-2個月。照此推算，上半年新開工項目計劃投資金額的同比回落，將拖累基建行業下半年的信貸需求。在未考慮顯著外生政策變量的條件下，預期三四季度GDP實際增速有較大概率出現進一步下滑。為守住“下限”，不排除第三季度政府推出溫和刺激政策的可能性，這可能在一定程度上促進投資增長，帶動信貸需求。2、製造業信貸需求缺乏動力信貸投放的主要行業——製造業，經營前景仍不會有顯著改觀，其信貸需求可能進一步放緩。製造業庫存狀況自年初以來遲遲未進入補庫存過程。總的來說，製造業經營狀況變差將很大程度上限制企業的產能擴張和投資，最終表現為信貸需求收縮。3、住戶中長期消費信貸四季度可能回落下半年房地產市場將總體保持穩定格局，形成“量縮價穩”的態勢，特別是受基數效應影響，房地產銷售量下降可能性較大，同比增速或放緩至25%-30%。對於商品房銷售市場，由於房價上漲趨於平緩及成交量有所下降，住戶中長期消費貸款增速將在第四季度出現下滑。4、貨幣政策保持穩健，存款壓力限制信貸投放下半年，貨幣政策大幅放鬆和出現大規模外生性信貸需求的可能性都不大，銀行業在存貸兩端都將面臨挑戰。在穩健、中性的貨幣政策下，預計存款準備金率不會大幅下調，基準利率將保持基本穩定，銀行總體信貸環境仍不會明顯寬鬆。受限于吸存能力，下半年銀行信貸投放能力依然不強。5、企業貸款占比逐步下降，中長期貸款占比繼續上升下半年，部分項目加快審批會對企業中長期貸款構成一定支撐。但更為重要的是，預計銀行在存款壓力下，仍會通過壓縮短期票據融資來避免貸款增長過快和存貸比超標，從而企業貸款中中長期貸款占比將繼續上升。6、新增貸款在社會融資規模中的比重將有所上升下半年信托項目審核、國資委、銀監會對央企、銀行重點行業融資的嚴格要求都不會放鬆，信托貸款、委托貸款、承兌匯票等融資難有擴大，而銀行貸款將保持平穩增長，占比將有所提高。預計全年社會融資總規模將達到17-18萬億，較2012年15.8萬億的規模增加約11.0%。二、新增外匯占款將減少，貨幣供應增速下降下半年，貸款增速將有所放緩，外匯占款增量下降繼續對貨幣增長構成限制，但企業債券融資規模擴大和非存款類金融機構存款快增有利於貨幣擴張。綜合考慮各方面因素，預計2013年末，M2和M1分別同比增長13-14% 和9％左右。1、下半年新增外匯占款將明顯減少下半年，由於熱點領域融資需求需求和能力減弱、境內人民幣利率水平進一步回落、人民幣升值預期放緩、海外經濟有所好轉、美國超寬貨幣政策的逐步退出預期，以及外管局對虛假貿易的嚴格管理，每月新增外匯占款將明顯減少，全年新增外匯占款1.8萬億左右。2、財政存款同比減少形成對M2的正效應根據全年財政收入增速7%左右和財政支出增速13.5%左右以及新增國債規模約5500億元的判斷，預計2013年全年財政存款約有1萬億的下降。綜合以上三個核心驅動因素，取近三年數據進行參數估計，測算出2012年新增M2約為12.6萬億元，餘額同比增長約13％。應該指出，在短期存款增量中，可能包含了銀行為完成時點考核目標、達成合規的存貸比要求，短期吸收的虛增存款。在當前吸收存款難度加大的背景下，銀行往往採取短期同業市場拆借、爭取企業財務公司短期存款和以貸吸存的方式增加考核點存款基數，這部分存款在名義上會推高M2在年底的增速，但其穩定性比較差。綜述，今年M2增速可能在13％-14％。3、M1增速下滑，M2和M1“正剪刀差”持續下半年，預計宏觀經濟運行將總體平穩，但小幅下滑。在潛在增速下降環境中，企業經濟活躍程度將有所下降，貨幣沉澱現象將持續。預計M2和M1的“正剪刀差”將有所擴大。在貨幣市場，流動性相較上半年也將略有緊張。第五看點：貨幣政策穩健 定向調節靈活一、下半年貨幣政策維持穩健基調，更加注重針對性和靈活性1、貨幣政策需要在穩增長和防風險之間取得平衡下半年，通貨膨脹基本不是問題，而結構調整又是長期工程，需要認真規劃、穩妥推進，因而當前宏觀調控的重點是平衡好穩增長和防風險之間的關係。預計下半年的貨幣政策將呈現以下三個特點。一是實際政策操作仍是中性，以預調微調為主，利率和準備金率的使用仍然較為謹慎，除非有異常衝擊發生，大幅調整的可能性不大；二是公開市場操作仍將作為主要的政策工具來使用，用以靈活調節流動性，但在外匯占款增量顯著下降的情況下，下半年公開市場操作將以淨投放為主；三是再貸款、再貼現、SLO和SLF、定向央票等針對性強的定向調節工具的使用頻率會明顯提高，以提高流動性調節的靈活性和針對性，增強資金流入實體經濟的引導作用。2、存款準備金率保持基本穩定或小幅下調在政策穩健的總體基調下，年內準備金率將保持基本穩定，大幅調整的可能性不大，但也不排除適度下調1－2次、每次0.5個百分點的可能。下半年，預計外匯占款增量難以維持上半年的快增態勢，從而出現顯著下降。加之下半年公開市場到期資金量有所減少，存款準備金率有適度小幅下調的可能，以緩解因外匯占款增量下降帶來的流動性壓力。但基於以下兩方面原因，大幅下調的可能性不大：一是因為2012年下半年的實際政策操作情況已經證明，通過加大逆回購等公開市場操作工具足以應付外匯占款增速放緩的影響，保持流動性的合理和適度。二是資金在行業間的分佈存在結構性差異，準備金率下調這種“一刀切”式做法對解決結構性問題的效果並不顯著。3、存貸款基準利率保持穩定從穩增長的角度來看，的確有降息的壓力。但微幅降息對促進經濟增長效果有限，卻可能導致房價反彈，不利於房地產市場的健康發展。當前社會融資成本較高主要是因為房地產和地方政府融資平台從信托、委托貸款等渠道融得的資金成本較高，這也導致了銀行貸款加權平均利率難以明顯下降。鑒於這些領域已經獲得大量資金、負債率上升，下半年這些領域進一步融資的需求和能力都會有所下降，加之對資金套利的監管加強，預計信托、委托貸款等非信貸融資規模難以大幅增加，相應利率也會有所降低，進而會帶動總體社會融資成本的下降。總之，降息的必要性下降。盡管今年全年物價漲幅不高，全年CPI漲幅可能在2.6％左右，但目前一年期存款基準利率為3％，降息的空間並不大且不利於通脹預期的管理。資本外逃的風險也不可不防。盡管基準利率變化對資本流動的影響並不顯著，但在資本流向已經發生改變、中外利差可能趨於收窄的情況下，基準利率下調可能會加劇這一趨勢。而在物價運行處在上漲周期的前半段、總體依然較為溫和、可控的情況下，也尚未到運用加息手段來抑制通脹的地步。4、公開市場操作將以淨投放為主與上半年相比，下半年公開市場操作將會有以下幾方面的變化。一是在操作方向上，為對沖外匯占款增量顯著下降對國內流動性的影響，預計公開市場操作將會加大資金投放力度，以淨投放為主；二是在具體工具的選擇上，鑒於下半年公開市場到期資金不多，逆回購可能重�，並保持較大規模；三是公開市場短期流動性調節工具（SLO）的使用頻率會有所提高，定向央票也可能再次發行，以增強流動性調節的針對性。5、再貼現等定向調節工具可能頻繁使用目前再貼現的利率是2.25%，相對較低，這對對引導資金流向特定領域、降低實體經濟融資成本會有顯著效果。人民銀行已經明確表示，將繼續發揮再貼現對符合宏觀審慎要求的金融機構提供流動性支持、引導信貸資金流向、促進信貸結構調整的積極作用，支持金融機構擴大對小微企業和“三農”等薄弱環節的信貸投放。未來再貼現、再貸款、SLF、差別存款準備金率工具的使用頻率將會提高，並作為引導金融機構“盤活存量，用好增量”的主要工具。同時繼續通過窗口指導、發行小微專項金融債等鼓勵金融機構加強對小微企業金融支持。二、利率市場化改革將進一步推進具體來看，在經濟下行壓力較大的情況下，為促進企業融資成本下降，7月20日央行已經完全放開貸款利率下限。存款方面，預計會按照“先長期、大額，後短期、小額”的步驟漸次放開，大額長期存款利率的市場化會加快推進。此外，相關配套改革將會提上日程，存款保險制度有望擇機推出；允許銀行發行大額可轉讓存單也可能會有所突破；並簡化存貸款利率的期限結構，取消一年期以上存貸款期限的基準利率。迷你倉沙田

KANSAS CITY, Mo.存倉, Aug. 14, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Earlier this year, Pioneer Services was selected as having the best Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) program for companies with less than 5,000 employees in PR Daily's CSR Awards. The company has been recognized by PR Daily once again, selected as having one of the best CSR programs in the nation regardless of company size in the 2013 PR Daily Awards. Other recipients included the Men's Warehouse and Walmart Mexico and Central America.(Logo: photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20110223/CG52713LOGO)Pioneer Services does a number of things to give back to the military communities it serves. This includes in-kind support in its local offices, cash donations throughout the year, and the company's award-winning paid volunteer time off (VTO) program that provides more than 4,500 hours of VTO annually."We have made giving back a lot easier by making it part of our corporate culture," said Pioneer Services President Joe Freeman. "Part of that includes having team members take ownership of the program so they have a vested stake in its success. They have done a tremendous job, as awards like this show, and have come up with unique ways to give back to military families."This is the third award the company has received for its CSR program in the past 14 months. The company also received a 2012 PR Daily CSR Award and 2012 American Business Award (call自存倉d a "Stevie").Pioneer Services, the military division of MidCountry Bank, provides financial services and award-winning education to members of the Armed Forces. For more than 25 years, Pioneer Services has been a leader in military lending, offering military loans, retail lending, VA loans, Certificates of Deposit, savings accounts, and award-winning financial education programs through a network of offices and on the Internet. Pioneer Services is proud to support military families and communities through a variety of partnerships, programs, and sponsorships.For more information, visit PioneerMilitaryLoans.com. For information about our parent company, visit MidCountryFinancial.com.Contact:Scott CahillPublic Relations, Pioneer Servicesmedia@pioneerservices.comph: 816-756-2020fax: 816-561-9333(C)2013 Pioneer Services. All loan applications are confidential and subject to our credit policies. If you are approved for additional funds, we will consolidate any existing loan balance together with the additional funds so that you will only have one loan. The loan origination fee is calculated as a percentage of your loan amount. No official U.S. military endorsement is implied. MidCountry Bank is a member FDIC.Photo: photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20110223/CG52713LOGOPioneer Services, a Division of MidCountry BankWeb site: .PioneerServices.com/PioneerMilitaryLoans.com/MidCountryFinancial.com/迷你倉新蒲崗

Source: Daily Mail, LondonAug.自存倉 14--A FALL in the inflation rate yesterday was a ray of sunshine for households ? and it was thanks, in part, to the washout summer of 2012.The Consumer Prices Index (CPI), the main inflation measure, fell from 2.9pc in the year to June to 2.8pc in the year to July, while the more traditional Retail Prices Index showed a drop from 3.3pc to 3.1pc.Clothing and footwear prices were a key contributor to the fall in the CPI. 'This is essentially a story about 2012,' said Richard Campbell of the Office for National Statistics.'The very wet weather last year meant that discounting started early, so many of the price falls happened before July. This year was more normal, with summer sales in July.'July saw clothing and footwear prices fall by 3.2pc compared with June, against just 2.6pc in July last year.Other factors behind the drop in the CPI were lower air fares and falls in prices of recreation and cultural products.Campbell said he was wary of suggesting the Olympic Games had affected these last two categories, adding: 'We produce UK figures and not figures relating only to London.'And he warned that, while the slowdown in the CPI was welcome, 'prices are still going up more than earnings, and that means people are feeling the pinch'.The Bank 迷你倉新蒲崗f England has forecast that inflation will remain above the Government's 2pc target for the rest of this year.Campbell said that half of current CPI inflation was accounted for by three types of prices ? food, housing costs, such as utility bills, and transport expenditure on cars, train fares and plane tickets.But there was bad news for the manufacturing industry, whose fuel and raw materials costs rose by 5pc in the year to July, up from 4pc in the year to June.Prices charged by manufacturers on goods as they leave the factory gate rose by 2.1pc in the year to July, from 2pc in the year to June.A GLOOMY outlook for exports was published today by accountant EY, formerly Ernst & Young. An in-depth study of international trade data shows British exports growing at just 0.3pc year on year from 2012 to 2017, far behind the annual 1pc forecast European average and 2.3pc forecast for Germany.Mark Gregory, chief economist at EY, said: 'Our analysis suggests UK goods exporters are lagging behind the wider UK recovery.'We are seeing a decline in demand from our traditional large trading partners for UK goods to 2017.'Copyright: ___ (c)2013 Daily Mail (London, ) Visit the Daily Mail (London, ) at .dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html Distributed by MCT Information Services迷你倉出租

Group dressed in T-shirts with characters for ‘Harbin Railway Bureau’ found on Beijing streetA group of at least 10 people drank pesticide on a street in Beijing in what appeared to be a suicide pact on Tuesday morning, but it was unclear whether anyone died, local media reported.self storageThe incident occurred near the Beijing West Railway Station – a major transport hub in the capital – and some of the participants wore white T-shirts with red Chinese characters that said “Harbin Railway Bureau”, the Beijing Youth Daily reported.A witness was quoted as saying people were spotted lying in the street, surrounded by vomit and tissues. “They didn’t speak and it seemed like they might have been unconscious,” the passer-by told the newspaper.The Beijing News reported online the group had been petitioning the China Railway Corporation prior to drinking the pesticide, but it was unclear what their concerns were. The report was later removed from the site.Police cars and ambulances soon arrived at the scene, and the 10 were taken to two nearby hospitals, according to the Youth Daily. Their 迷你倉onditions were not known, and a staff member at Fuxing Hospital said only some patients had been admitted after taking pesticide.Photos posted online on Tuesday showed police officers guarding a triage room at Fuxing Hospital, and several people wearing the same white T-shirts were photographed sitting or lying on beds in a hospital corridor.A representative for the Harbin Railway Bureau in Heilongjiang province said he was unaware of the incident. Beijing’s Public Security Bureau did not respond to an interview request.The incident occurred close to the headquarters of China Railway. The building formally housed the Ministry of Railways, a once super ministry that oversaw the mainland’s railway network, and its more than two million employees.In March, the Ministry of Railways was dismantled and its duties were absorbed by the Ministry of Transport, State Railways Administration and China Railway. The restructuring led to fears over job cuts, but former railways minister Sheng Guangzu , who is now the general manager of China Railway, said in March there would be no layoffs.文件倉

Source: Tampa Tribune, Fla.迷你倉價錢Aug. 14--TAMPA -- Tampa code violators could find themselves facing a judge instead of the city's Code Enforcement Board starting in September.The chief judge for Hillsborough County Circuit Court has created two courts specifically to hear city ordinance violations.One will handle violations punishable by jail time, a list that includes Notice to Appear citations issued to the city's habitual housing code violators.The other will handle civil infractions, such as noise violations and open-container citations. Housing code violators are also often ticketed as civil offenses."The special municipal dockets are a common sense solution that will hopefully expedite how quickly the court can process code enforcement and aggressive panhandling, among other issues," Mayor Bob Buckhorn said in a written statement announcing the new courts.The new courts were cr迷你倉庫ated in the midst of Buckhorn's month-long code enforcement sweep in several parts of town notorious for poorly kept housing. That sweep is in its final week.City officials said the new courts will streamline code enforcement by providing code officers and the Tampa Police Department a designated location for their hearings and judges trained to hear municipal code violations.Before the municipal courts were set up, city ordinance violations went to the same dockets with criminal misdemeanor offenses and could be heard by any of six different judges.The first code court cases will start Sept. 11 for those punishable by jail time. Civil cases will start Oct. 3.kwiatrowski@tampatrib.com(813) 259-7871Twitter: @kwiatrowskiTBOCopyright: ___ (c)2013 the Tampa Tribune (Tampa, Fla.) Visit the Tampa Tribune (Tampa, Fla.) at .tampatrib.com Distributed by MCT Information Services儲存

Ambassador to Myanmar Yang Houlan says momentum is still good to complete the Myitsone dam, called off after local protestsBeijing is seeking to restart construction of the stalled Myitsone dam on the Irrawaddy river, a Myanmese newspaper quoted ambassador Yang Houlan as saying.存倉But China would only proceed with government permission and the consent of the nation’s people, Yang told The Irrawaddy in an exclusive interview published on Tuesday.President Thein Sein suspended work on the dam in 2011, citing the “people’s will” following widespread protests domestically and globally.The US$3 billion project by the China Power Investment (CPI) would have been Myanmar’s largest dam by far, flooding an area the size of Singapore to provide power mostly to cities in Yunnan province. As many as 10,000 ethnic Kachins in the country’s restive northeast could be displaced.In Tuesday’s interview, Yang said the suspension had not harmed ties with Myanmar and “the momentum is still good.”The ambassador said that without more power, improving Myanmar’s agriculture and industry would be impossible.“If you want to develop the industrial sector, then power supply is a basic need,” Yang was quoted as saying. “Without electricity, how can you develop industry?“China’s view is that we hope we can revive the project. But of course, we respect the Myanmar government’s decision and we also respect the people’s views.”Yang’s announcement comes after an apparent charm offensive by Beijing targeting the Myanmese public.Experts said Yang’s cautious optimism about restarting the自存倉dam project may be at least partially inspired by the China-Myanmar gas pipeline which began operations two weeks ago.Yang’s predecessor, Li Junhua , reportedly also advocated restarting construction of the dam last year but was quickly met with local opposition.“Why should the Irrawaddy-Myitsone dam project be built to provide 90 per cent of the power generated to China, while the people of Burma must bear all the social and environmental costs?” the Burma Rivers Network, a non-governmental organisation, wrote in an open letter to Li in December.According to The Irrawaddy, renewed activity has been reported at the construction site. Local media have reported that CPI told villagers that work had been suspended only for Thein Sein’s tenure and that construction might resume in 2015.“The dam has been suspended, not stopped – whatever that means,” said Bernt Berger, head of the Asia programme at the Institute for Security and Development Policy.Berger said there were widespread reports from locals that Chinese corporations were engaged in gold mining around Myitsone.“I don’t think the Chinese government fully understands what happens in Kachin. This is no longer about resettlement and compensation but about self-determination and being part of the political process,” Berger said. “Kachin wants to have a say in the dialogue about these big projects.”Berger said projects such as the dam were central in dialogue between Kachin rebels and the government. “My assessment is that the civilian government will not consider resuming construction at the moment.”迷你倉新蒲崗

Productivity, competitiveness can be improved with a more fluid, community-based approachJAMES, a project manager, starts his day from one of the desks in the office solving client-related issues that have cropped up overnight.文件倉 An hour later, he is at a management meeting pinning down budgets for the coming quarter. After lunch at a nearby coffeehouse, he heads to a client meeting a few blocks down the road to secure the client's approval for new initiatives.In the late afternoon, he is back at the office working in one of the informal meeting areas located throughout his office, engaged in a fruitful brainstorm session with fellow colleagues. By the end of the day, he has settled down at another desk completing a 10-page sustainability report on his company's corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices.In one day, James passed just a couple of hours at a desk, and spent the rest of his time in other parts of the office. This is a typical work day of an employee from a company that has recognised the benefits of facilitating office-based smart agile working environments.As we thrive in the knowledge economy, greater emphasis is placed on human capital, knowledge sharing and networks of relationships, rather than physical office space. Employees tend to have a number of tailored working modes during the typical work day, some of which are not well suited to the traditional office environment. The phrase "desk-bound" is set to become obsolete in an era where globalisation and seismic shifts in work practices are tearing down the walls of the traditional office building.Agile working is catching on as companies all over the world are embracing increasingly flexible ways of working. According to the Virtual and flexible work environments on the rise report conducted by KPMG, 66 per cent of Singapore respondents said that flexi-time arrangements and alternatives to physical office premises such as hot-desking are becoming increasingly common.The transition towards this trend is a result of work becoming more collaborative and fluid as organisations' overall success depends on a community-based mind-set. Flexible working is not just a matter of moving around some furniture, but changing the working culture and designing spaces that foster employee productivity in the office. The physical office space therefore needs to evolve to better equip employees with an environment that drives efficiency and encourages collaboration.The benefits of flexible working conditions are distinct and measurable. In a recent BT study of desk utilisation, we found that desks are used, on average, just 50-60 per cent of the working day. By introducing agility into the equation, personal desk allocation can, and therefore physical workspace, be reduced. BT's experience with such large-scale agile work programmes has d存倉monstrated that efficiency savings are typically more than 10 per cent and can exceed 20 per cent in some cases.Dutch insurance company Interpolis found that after redesigning their workspace to support flexible working, productivity has increased by 20 per cent, sick leave has dropped from 9 per cent to 2.5 per cent and 51 per cent of working areas have been freed up.BT is a firm believer in the benefits of offering flexible working atmospheres for our employees and customers globally. Of BT's 94,000 employees, 65,000 or about 70 per cent across all employee functions and management levels work flexibly in some way, and this includes office-based flexible working. This community-based office culture that BT has cultivated is aimed at delivering significant benefits in terms of collaboration, efficiency and productivity.Flexible working can take on many forms in the workplace. The working environment can be made more agile by reducing desk allocation and providing alternative work spaces such as hot-desking, drop-in areas, team zones and informal working spaces.This year, BT Southeast Asia (BT SEA) successfully made the transition to a new way of working at its new office in Changi, where 650 people share 440 desk spaces. All employees are equipped with technology and connectivity that enables them to work anywhere, inside and out of the office. With this new approach, the company is seeing an increase in productivity and a step change in the collaboration between teams resulting in a better customer service. Each employee has specific preferences for his work space. BT SEA's new office is designed to support and encourage different work styles. For example, collaboration is much easier with more than 30 meeting rooms, nine video conferencing suites, and facilities such as a centralised booking system.Organisations looking to introduce flexible working practices can adopt technological solutions to facilitate the shift towards agility.Undoubtedly, new attitudes and technologies are changing business paradigms, and the agile organisation will be an inevitable result of the transition towards a more fluid approach to work. Relying on 20th century models to run 21st century businesses will not work for much longer and businesses are increasingly realising that agility is a means of sharpening their competitive edge and increasing employee productivity.Knowledge creation and sharing combined with mass collaboration can deliver higher company gains. A flexible work environment contributes towards cultivating these desired traits in an organisation. It is therefore increasingly vital for companies to adapt to these work shifts by becoming more "agile" and embracing flexible working environments.The writer is Managing Director for British Telecom's South East Asian (SEA) operations, based in Singapore自存倉

TORONTO, Aug.迷你倉庫 14, 2013 /CNW/ - Marathon Gold Corporation (MOZ-TSX) ("Marathon") announced today its unaudited financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2013.Highlights:-- At June 30, 2013, Marathon held $1.9 million in cash and working capital. -- Marathon's 10,000 meter winter drilling program at the Valentine Lake project was completed in late March and incorporated into a revised mineral resource estimate for the Leprechaun Gold Deposit. In the underground portion of the resource, measured and indicated grade increased to 4.17 g/t from 2.75 g/t in the previous resource released in October 2012, while the inferred grade increased to 6.13 g/t from 2.6 g/t. In the open-pit portion of the resource, measured and indicated contained gold increased by 97,000 ounces or 17.3% compared to the previous resource, with little change in grade. -- The winter drilling program also drove an initial resource estimate for Valentine East Hill. This shallow open pit resource, the first resource away from the Leprechaun Gold Deposit, represented a discovery cost of approximately $8 per ounce. -- The work program at Valentine Lake is focused a technical study of the structural geology of the property to prioritize future drilling targets. -- During the period, Marathon acquired effective control of Golden Chest LLC, the owner of the Golden Chest Mine property, and now controls 52.2% of the project.Operating results:Marathon's results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2013 and 2012 are summarized below.Three months ended Six months ended June 30 June 302013 2012 2013 2012$ $ $ $Expenses:Exploration expenses 16,692 349,404 17,969 351,476General and administrative 336,685 376,397 882,900 737,113 expensesInterest income (8,500) (19,570) (19,892) (33,154)Unrealized loss on warrant 519 23,987 3,208 82,750 derivative investmentsForeign exchange loss 515 1,101 568 816Loss before taxes 345,911 731,319 884,753 1,139,001Income taxes (15,284) (376,986) (75,502) (1,006,574)Loss for the period 330,627 354,333 809,251 132,427This press release should be read in conjunction with Marathon's condensed interim consolidated financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2013 and the related Management's Discussion and Analysis, both of which are available on .sedar.com.About the Valentine Lake ProjectMarathon Gold Corporation is the 100% owner of the Valentine Lake Project. The Leprechaun Gold Deposit is situated at the south-western end of the Valentine Lake Project, and the Valentine East Gold Zone is located 17 kilometers along strike running in a north-easterly direction.? The J. Frank Zone, which currently extends over an area in excess of 1.4 kilometers in length and 250 meters in width, is located up to 0.5 kilometers southwest along strike from the current Resource boundary of the Leprechaun Gold Deposit. These gold occurrences form part of a 23 kilometer long, highly prospective gold-bearing mineralized corridor focused along the Valentine Lake thrust fault.Valentine Lake Property Des儲存riptionThe Valentine Lake property has two well defined gold deposits with NI 43-101 complaint resources: the Leprechaun Gold Deposit and Valentine East Hill Deposit. The Leprechaun Gold Deposit has a NI 43-101 compliant Measured Open Pit and Underground Resource. The Open Pit Resource is Measured 3.5 million tonnes @ 2.8 g/t Au containing 247,000 oz Au and Indicated?6.2 million tonnes @ 2.07 g/t Au containing 412,000 oz Au and Inferred 1.2 million tonnes @ 1.82 g/t Au containing 71,000 oz Au. The Underground Resource is Measured 108,000 tonnes @ 4.83 g/t Au containing 17,000 oz Au and Indicated 764,000 tonnes @ 4.05 g/t Au containing 100,000 oz Au and Inferred 349,000 tonnes @ 6.13 g/t Au containing 69,000 oz Au. The Leprechaun Gold Deposit is open at depth and along strike. The Valentine East Hill has a NI 43-101 complaint Indicated Resource of 761,000 tonnes @ 1.67 g/t Au containing 41,000 oz; Inferred: 199,000 tonnes @ 1.47 g/t Au containing 9,000 oz.About Marathon Gold CorporationMarathon Gold Corporation is a North American gold resource development company, with projects located in the mining friendly province of Newfoundland and Labrador, the prolific Coeur d'Alene Mining District of Idaho and the historic gold rich Greenhorn District of Oregon, USA.? Marathon has a project pipeline consisting of early stage exploration to advanced resource development projects. Marathon is continually evaluating new gold resource development projects of merit that are located within the Americas.? Marathon's focused and low-cost approach to exploration and resource development has an established record of delivering rapid growth.? For more information visit: .marathon-gold.com.CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATIONExcept for statements of historical fact relating to Marathon Gold Corporation, certain information contained herein constitutes "forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or include words such as "expects", "anticipates", "plans", "believes", "considers", "intends", "targets", or negative versions thereof and other similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as "may", "will", "should", "would" and "could". We provide forward-looking statements for the purpose of conveying information about our current expectations and plans relating to the future and readers are cautioned that such statements may not be appropriate for other purposes.? By its nature, this information is subject to inherent risks and uncertainties that may be general or specific and which give rise to the possibility that expectations, forecasts, predictions, projections or conclusions will not prove to be accurate, that assumptions may not be correct and that objectives, strategic goals and priorities will not be achieved. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to those identified and reported in Marathon Gold Corporation's public filings, which may be accessed at .sedar.com.? Other than as specifically required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which such statement is made, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, whether as a result of new information, future events or results otherwise.??Marathon Gold CorporationCONTACT: Marathon Gold CorporationJim KirkeChief Financial Officer(416) 987-0710新蒲崗迷你倉

By Li Tao ( China Daily) Tencent Holdings Ltd, China's biggest Internet company, reported lower-than-expected second-quarter results on Wednesday as higher marketing costs for its fledgling messaging and social media app WeChat eroded earnings.儲存Net profit rose 18.4 percent to 3.7 billion yuan ($601 million), the company said in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange. But profits fell short of the consensus of 3.9 billion yuan from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News and 4.1 billion yuan among those polled by Reuters.Group revenue in the second quarter rose 36.6 percent to 14.4 billion yuan.Growth in the second quarter was mainly driven by the online game and advertising businesses, Pony Ma, chairman and chief executive officer of the Internet conglomerate, said in the statement.Revenues generated from online advertising and e-commerce transactions hit 1.3 billion yuan and 2.2 billion yuan, respectively, during the second quarter, up 52.7 percent and 15.0 percent over the previous three months.Marketing costs jumped during the period, accounting for 9 percent of revenues compared with 6 percent a year earlier, as the company stepped up marketing activities for WeChat, also known as Weixin, in international markets, according to Tencent.In a conference call on Wednesday, Tencent President Martin Lau said that Tencent will continue aggressive international marketing.WeChat had 235.8 m新蒲崗迷你倉llion monthly active users as of June 30, up 21.3 percent from the previous quarter, according to the statement.India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are all targeted markets where WeChat aims to increase its user base, according to Lau.In the latest version of WeChat released this month, the company integrated features such as online games, stickers and an in-app payment system, an attempt that shows its ambitions in monetizing the app in the future.But that's just the beginning, Ma Yuan and Gu Xinyu from BOCOM International wrote in a report last week."Therefore, we do not factor in much revenue contribution from payments at the moment, as we believe Tencent is focusing on building up the ecosystem at the current stage." "We believe WeChat has the potential and capability to develop its own e-commerce platform in the future," the BOCOM International report said.Linus Yip, a Hong Kong-based strategist from First Shanghai Securities Ltd, believes the long-term prospects for e-commerce and social mobile platforms remain positive in China."Tencent's overall performance still stands out, and profits derived from its primary and related services are likely to be sustained in the future," said Yip. "We've heard bearish views on the shares in the market after gaining substantially over the year, but I believe the fundamentals of the company remain solid," Yip added.litao@chinadailyhk.commini storage

　　【本報訊】在中央穩增長導向下，儲存倉地方政府近期密集推投資計劃，鐵路、棚戶區改造、地鐵輕軌等成重點投資領域。未來7年，地方政府在地鐵、輕軌的投資規模將達4萬億元（人民幣，下同）。　　此外，多家銀行近期也定向對重點省市「輸血」放貸。受穩增長力度加大刺激，上證指數昨日上升0.2%，水泥建材、鋼鐵股走強。　　據內地媒體報道，近期有10多個城市的發改部門，批覆了本地建設城市交通項目的開工申請。而中國工程院院士王夢恕直言，「差不多的城市都在規劃、建設地鐵、城軌」。建設軌道交通 36城市獲批　　根據鐵道部前總工程師華茂崑的估算，目前已批准建軌道交通的城市有36個，到2020年，全國軌道交通里程將增加一倍至近6,000公里，在軌道交通方面的投資將達4萬億元。　　據國家發改委統計，今年全國城市軌道交通的投資將達到2,200億元，比去年增加了400億元。　　全國各地掀起的新一輪的地鐵、輕軌項目建設熱，與中央政府提出的經濟「保下限」和政策走向息息相關。農行予滬政府2500億信貸　　7月31日，國務院常務會議就加強城市基礎設施建設進行部署，提出加強6大領域的城市基迷你倉沙田設施建設投資，其中包括地鐵、輕軌等大型公共交通系統建設。交通運輸部部長楊傳堂早前稱，推進城市軌道交通建設是下半年交通工作5大重點之一。　　在穩增長導向下，大型銀行和政策性銀行近期定向對多個省市「輸血」，與多個省市簽署巨額的信用信貸。其中，農業銀行（01288）與上海市政府簽署協議，向上海提供2,500億元信用貸款，這是對上海6大領域金融扶持的一部分。　　此外，國家開發銀行在過去的十幾天，先後與江蘇、河北、青海等多省政府簽署合作備忘錄，以加大對這些省份的支持力度。　　分析指，銀行對地方大規模的支持，可能與中央政策的導向有關，國家開發銀行是政策性銀行的定向貸款，體現了財政刺激經濟的屬性。滬指再升 水泥鋼鐵股走強　　因政府「微刺激」政策力度加大，上證指數在周一大幅上升2.4%並創下近兩個月最大升幅後，昨日震盪上升0.2%，收報2106點；深證成指微升0.07%，收報8362點。其中，水泥建材、文化傳媒、鋼鐵、銀行等板塊升幅靠前。　　展望後市，分析師指出，由於經濟是否已見底仍有待觀察，但「底�思維」穩定了市場信心，預期短期後市在2100點附近反覆波動。迷你倉價錢

嚴婷日本央行周二發佈的7月會議紀要顯示，迷你倉價錢大多數央行委員認為，日本國內經濟正在“溫和複蘇”，但是也有一些委員稱需要注意海外經濟增長的不確定性，並對國內資本支出情況持謹慎態度。紀要顯示，一位委員認為，海外經濟複蘇的時間可能推遲，部分委員表示海外經濟體的增長低於預期，主要是中國和新興國家。值得注意的是，“所有委員均認為中國不可能回複到之前的高增長。”今年4月，日本央行實施了激進的“量化與質化”寬鬆貨幣政策，誓言要將日本通脹率在兩年內推升至2%的目標水平。自此後其一直維持政策不變。在7月10日至11日召開的會議中，日本央行上調了對經濟的評估，稱日本經濟開始複蘇，這是過去兩年半以來最樂觀的表態。自安倍晉三去年12月上任以來，日本經濟複蘇已經在“安倍經濟學”的刺激下開始萌芽。目前，日本通脹已經開始上升，讓日本各界看到了走出通縮的一絲曙光。但日本二季度的經濟增速卻遠低於預期。日本政府周一公佈，第二季度國內生產總值(GDP)折合成年率增長2.6%，比市場預期值低了足足一個百分點。第一季度GDP增幅也向下修正為3.8%，初值為增長4.1%。雖然今年年初以來，日經指數上漲30%，日元兌美元貶值幅度達12%，但第二季度GDP數據顯示，實際增長數據和市場預計出現“大幅背離”，挫傷了投資市場對於“安倍經濟學”的信心。央行的會議紀要迷你倉庫顯示，部分委員表示，必須重建日本財政政策的市場信任度，以使利率持穩。一些委員預期政府將持續推進財政改革。小部分委員表示他們對通脹的預估比日本央行預估中值更為謹慎。一位委員表示日本公債市場仍存在潛在的不確定性。目前日本最具爭議的財政政策就是上調消費稅計劃。日本內閣去年批准，將于明年4月份將現行5%的消費稅調高至8%，2015年10月進一步上調至10%。上調消費稅的反對者擔憂，于明年4月開始分兩個階段上調消費稅的做法可能會扼殺脆弱的經濟複蘇。但支持上調消費稅的陣營卻認為，無論從財政可持續性、政府信譽角度來說都應該按原計劃上調。日本央行行長黑田東彥近期多次重申他支持按計劃上調消費稅。黑田擔憂，如果推遲上調消費稅，將導致市場利率飆升並給經濟造成傷害。其邏輯在於，投資者會把政府推遲增稅視為缺乏還債誠意，進而要求更高的債券收益率以補償持有日本國債的風險。這將導致日本政府融資成本全線上升，打擊消費者和企業的借款和消費熱情。野村證券(Nomura)日本首席經濟學家木下智夫（Tomo Kinoshita ）對《第一財經日報》記者表示，他預計消費稅很可能會按計劃上調，因為二季度GDP數據仍然超出了日本潛在經濟增速（0.5%至1%），而且日本的二季度GDP數據很可能會在9月9日的修正中被上調，因為這將考慮到6月的公共投資核心數據。儲存

　　港股今日會否因颱風休市，新蒲崗迷你倉留意新聞。筆者休息幾日，大勢又全不同，擺脫悶局！突破之後的形勢還是看成交，昨增至728.65億元，勝早前淡靜市四百多億元，喜見成交配合上來。　　市場對內地經濟硬�陸之慮已大降，臨近三中全會，國策燈愈點愈明，利好。唯一擔心是美股於目前高位停滯不前，牛皮多時總有個了斷，若向下了斷，本周挾上乃陷阱。不過，這也只是純推測，看好眼前趨勢要緊，大市配合成交，中資股終脫絆腳石惡勢，乃短�偏利好港股之兆。中資股終於領漲　　金融內險股強力帶動，國指周一及周二連爆兩日，突破10000大關並企穩，昨收10185，升2.6%。中資股終於識得領漲，十大成交榜中顯見主導，港股一改上月以來淡靜格局，突破22200後，迅即抵22500，昨高見22563，收報22541，升1.21%。中資股如能保持反覆向上勢，國指挑戰10500，�指進一步試衝22800至23000，短�支持由21000上移至21500。內房股確具優勢　　上周五指於內房汽車股類之中尋佳績股，內房股本周初至今，強勢持續。世茂房地產（00813）昨漲至5年高位，合景泰富（01813）受佳績刺激，半年純利按年升49%至人民幣13.57億元，昨急升9%至5元。美林及摩通維持「買入」及「增持」分別看7元及5元。中銀國際則指，合景盈利勝市場預期，主要受合營項目進入收成期推動。配合走勢分析，該股短�之關鍵阻力在5元，如能突破，上望5.5元，候低吸，4.5元止蝕。至於筆者看好並推介的的融創中國（01918），推介時報5.66元，股價反覆已搶升至昨最高位6.33元，按圖勢突破降軌好強勢。該股定於8月26日公布業績，等接佳績表。派息高具吸引力　　在業績公布期間，心水清的讀者可曾發現，一些盈利溫和漲幅股份，股價也有良好反應，關鍵在派息的增加超預期。所指的是華地國際（01700），截至今年6月底上半年度，收入21.12億元（人民幣．下同），按年增加8.1%；純利增長14%至4.46億元，每股盈利也增長14%至18分，但中期息增長150%至10港仙，派息比率由21%上升至70%。股價昨應聲而漲5.8%至4.39元。　　2013年內地經濟及消費增速放緩，百貨及超市整體進入低增長期，華地國際上半年度的盈收表現算合理。於2013年6月30日，公司的百貨店數目為18家，超市29mini storage。上半年業績顯示，百貨店的經營邊際利潤率為11.2%，與去年同期11.3%相若；超市之經營邊際利潤率為8%，與去年同期9.8%相比為低。可見華地實現規模化的「百貨+超市」雙模式業態的經營能力，有互補兩方面的收益不足作用，業務架構支持公司穩定的盈收表現。隨�內地經濟下半年料逐漸回暖，消費意慾增強，相信華地下半年盈收保持穩定。據交銀國際報告研究指出，華地百貨店八成四為自置物業，每股資產估值約5.6港元（美銀美林則估是6港元），具一定防守價值。配合走勢分析，華地自今年4月呈一浪高於一浪，反覆趨升，阻力分別為4.5元及4.8元。港交所有勢破阻　　今日公布業績的港交所（00388），在周一已發「神威」衝，昨進一步升1.5%至126.3元，業績是否喜出望外，今日自會揭曉。不過，摩根大通認真藝高人膽大，周二率先於業績將其投資評級，由「中性」調升至「跑贏大市」，但目標價由155元調低至135元，認真耐人尋味！從已公布證券及衍生產品的營業額數據，摩通指望在業績有很大驚喜，預期港交所第二季盈利達11.94億元（第一季為11.58億元），上半年則錄得23.52億元，較去年同期輕微增長5.5%。然而報告指，統計過去三年，8至11月份港股的平均交投量較5至7月份高12%。今年5至7月日均成交額為610億元，港交所現價只反映605億元的日均成交額，基本上並未反映季尾交投回升之因素。估計港交所周三公布業績後，市場會紛紛對其作重新評估，屆時對股價有正面影響。　　事實上，對港交所股價的預期，券商大多有方程式，以摩通論，PE在平均33倍的話，而日均成交額在634.81億元的話，合理價值在135元。相反，若日均成交額在700億元或以上，合理股價將等值149元。筆者認為年底前，港交所還有兩大催化劑值得期待，一是隨時為開通QDII2消息所刺激，二來阿里巴巴若選定港股上市，勢亦揭起高潮。之不過，要確實兩個消息，就無把握，不妨以守株待兔式心思買賣該股為主。7月5日曾建議小注收集港交所，當期時股價約在116元，現已抵首阻力125元，破降軌有信心續持有，等候股價進一步挑戰135元（�指年初高位23944到低位19400的反彈0.618倍目標約至22200，現已超逾。港交所可望跟隨，反彈0.618倍目標約看至135元水平）。　　idalam@hket.comself storage