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Solid gains seen in mainland August exports and imports after pickup in manufacturing activity and better-than-expected regional dataExpanding manufacturing activity and better-than-expected regional trade figures could point to an increase in China’s trade last month, driven by a recovery in the United States and European economies and stronger domestic demand.儲存倉Rising export orders and domestic investment helped push the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index to 51 last month, the highest since May last year, fuelling expectations of a stronger August trade. Official trade data for the month is due tomorrow.Confidence in global recovery got another boost after South Korea on Monday reported an unexpected 7.7 per cent year-on-year gain in exports last month, far exceeding the expectations of 3.8 per cent growth.UBS Securities estimates China’s exports may have increased about 8.5 per cent last month, compared with a 5.1 per cent rise in July. Imports are likely to have climbed 12.5 per cent, from July’s 10.9 per cent increase, thanks to recovering domestic demand, restocking and a pickup in some commodities prices.Mizuho Securities has a similar projection, saying exports grew 8 per cent while imports were up 12 per cent.“We believe the August PMI data is evidence that the economy is now bottoming out, partly due to the rebound of both domestic and external demand, and the growth-stabilising policies launched in July,” said Mizuho’s Shen Jianguang.Nevertheless, some analysts said their optimism was curbed by the yuan’s strength in view of the depreciation in regional currencies, including the Japanese yen.They said exports might have cooled slightly and the trade outlook was also clouded by rising global geopolitical risks in countries such as Syria.Barclays Capital’s Chang Jian predicted exports to have grown 3.5 per cent from August last year while imports rose 8 per cent.Currencies in the region, such as the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee, continue to fal迷你倉價錢 against the US dollar since the Federal Reserves first mentioned in May the likelihood of tapering the ultra-loose monetary policy, causing foreign funds to flow out of emerging markets.China has kept the yuan basically stable, making exports more expensive compared with its competitors.“The underlying export momentum has likely picked up further, as predicted by the improving US and European economies,” said UBS economists led by Wang Tao in a research note. “However, the strength of China’s exports may continue to be constrained by [the yuan’s] appreciation relative to other Asian and [emerging market] currencies.”The US economy expanded at a better-than-expected 2.5 per cent annualised rate in the second quarter while in the euro zone, factories were the busiest last month in more than two years.China’s port data improved, too. In July, port throughput rose 9.2 per cent from a year earlier to 16.5 million 20-foot equivalent units, according to a report by the Economic Daily.The gain accelerated from a 7 per cent growth in June and 4.8 per cent rise in July last year, the report said.The port throughput data was found more accurate than official customs data earlier this year as a large amount of hot money was discovered to have flowed into the country through fake trade deals betting on yuan appreciation.The regulators later tightened the controls on cross-border speculative funds flows. Following the crackdown, exports showed their first annual fall in 17 months in June. Imports also dropped.Although trade improved significantly in July, analysts said the road ahead would be bumpy.Li Jian, a senior researcher at an institute under the Ministry of Commerce, forecast exports and imports to maintain a moderate, single-digit average growth in the second half of this year. He also said depreciation in regional currencies was the main challenge.For the whole year, Li said, China’s trade growth might be close to, but not necessarily meet the official target of, 8 per cent growth.迷你倉