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Construction, upstream plantation firms and energy-intensive industries would stand to benefitFOR companies and investors, the American shale revolution may be a bonanza, or a bane.迷你倉價錢 From power utilities to car manufacturers to airlines - many companies stand to benefit from the expected fall in the long-term price of energy.But the impact may be different for other companies.One immediate effect has been the displacement of coal from power stations in the US, with a spillover on the rest of the world.Larger-than-expected US coal exports are now competing headlong with supply from Indonesia - the largest exporter of thermal coal - for markets in Asia.At the same time, China - the largest consumer - is planning to reduce its future demand of coal. The Chinese government, in a bid to combat severe air pollution, has publicly declared a limit on the amount of coal it will use."That's going to lead to more Indonesian thermal coal producers struggling to find a home for their product," said First State Investments head of global resources Joanne Warner.Already, the ample supply of coal, coupled with a disappointing global recovery, saw coal prices plunge to a three-year low of US$90 a tonne recently.How long the low prices would persist depends on whether suppliers cut production, Dr Warner added."From a portfolio sense that's one sector we're happy to avoid, because it does look like it's going to be challenging for some time."For now, the full impact has still to hit home for some. Singapore-listed coal producer Geo Energy said that it has seen continuous demand for the coal it produces, given strong demand in both China and India. For the Indonesian coal producer and many other oil and gas-related companies, the current shale revolution is not so much of a concern - as yet.The critical factor is the development of shale in China, which, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), has the largest shale reserves."What people are looking at, especially in the Far East, is the possibility of shale gas developing in China," said Marcel Tjia, CEO of oil and gas producer Interra Resources. "That's where, for people like us at Interra, it's going to be interesting."But Mr Tjia foresees significant challenges for China to overcome, such as building the necessary infrastructure and technology for a different geology as well as the lack of water near shale reserves.How shale gas and oil will affect China's demand for energy, and in particular coal, in the mid-to-long term remains uncertain, said Geo Energy's chief investment officer Mark Zhou. "This will really depend on any key developments on shale gas and oil in China as well as the energy trade between US and China."OptimismSome firms in the oil and gas industry are staying upbeat while preparing to leverage on the shale play.Pointing to recent forecasts by EIA and the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) which advises oil-consuming nations, Kep迷你倉庫el Offshore and Marine chief operating officer Chow Yew Yuen said: "Even with the growth of shale gas and oil production, the long-term fundamentals of the offshore and marine industry is expected to stay intact driven by the high demand for energy from China, India and other fast-growing emerging economies."EIA and IEA forecast Brent crude oil prices to reach US$117.36 and US$135.70 per barrel, respectively, in 2025, though EIA expects it to average US$100 per barrel next year."I'll be very surprised if (shale) has a massive impact on crude oil prices by 2020. In fact, my feeling is that it will be well beyond that," Mr Tjia said.This is because of a lack of widely adopted alternatives to kerosene, diesel and petrol in plane, train and car engines, as compared with the power generation sector which can switch between coal, natural gas and renewable fuels. "I don't see that kind of gas feed into cars in any meaningful way in the next five years," said Mr Tjia.Keppel O&M will continue to monitor the growth of shale oil and gas, said Mr Chow. "Where we see synergies, we will evaluate on how we can leverage our expertise to participate meaningfully."Similarly, mainboard-listed Mirach Energy might look at investing in shale gas technologies through partnerships or other structures should there be "a real structural shift" of shale gas in Asia, said its CEO William Chan, though the company does not expect crude oil prices to be impacted significantly in the foreseeable future.Sectors that could benefit from the shale revolution include construction and upstream plantation firms.Some suggest that there might be more opportunities for the construction industry as more countries demand new platforms such as floating terminals in order to ramp up their LNG capabilities quickly; more plants built in the US for nitrogen - used widely in fertilisers - could also lead to lower fertiliser prices in the long run.One issue for investors is that shale-related plays remain very localised in the US."Direct beneficiaries of the shale oil and gas bonanza would include equipment manufacturers and asset owners, as drilling activity increases," said oil and gas analyst Low Pei Han at OCBC Investment Research. "However, most of these are companies and individuals based in the US or Europe."While energy-intensive industries would also be indirect beneficiaries, these too are likely to be US-based companies for now, as export terminals would take time to be built, Ms Low said.And the best gains in the sector could have already been made, noted Dr Warner at First State Investments."Once something becomes so fashionable that people are talking about it at dinner parties, you got to question whether that's the time," she said."Chances are, when you're buying it, you're probably buying it from somebody who bought it four to five years ago, and they're locking in a really substantial profit."Fashionable isn't always the best way to make money."儲存